2015 California Walnut Crop Estimate

NASS released their 2015 California Walnut Objective Crop estimate today. The estimate is 575,000 MT which is up 1% over the 2014 crop estimate (570,000 MT). Please use the link below to view the estimate in detail.

Click for the 2015 NASS Walnut Objective Estimate

Please contact our sales staff for market info or pricing for your specific inquiry. Thank you for your continued support.

Almond Market Summary

The Almond Board released its June 2015 Industry Position Report today. Shipments for the month were 150.78 mil lbs versus 152.82 mil lbs in June 2014. Uncommitted inventory is 210 mil lbs versus 222.7 mil. U.S. shipments were up slightly, 54.3 mil lbs versus 53.3 mil lbs. Exports were down, 96.49 mil vs. 99.47 mil.. China/Hong Kong (+62%.), Middle East (+31%) and India (+9%) continue to be strong. It was a disappointing month for Europe; Spain (-19%) and Germany (-27%) contributed to Western Europe being down 13% (39.35 mil vs. 45.2 mil) compared to June 2014.

The 2015 Crop NASS Objective Estimate was released on July 1 at 1.80 bil, this was lower than what most of the industry expected. The market reacted by prices immediately reaching and exceeding the peak levels we saw in May. Since then, old crop prices have leveled off as sellers attempt to sell the remaining current crop inventory. New crop has seen limited offers as growers demand field prices that the market has yet to support.

A lot of talk has been made of the recent events in Greece and its effect of the Euro as well as the weak Chinese Stock market. It is too early to tell what effect it will have on the almond market, if at all. What we do know is that we expect prices, especially on new crop, to remain firm for the near future as harvest begins this month and growers continue to demand high prices.

Click Here For Shipping Report

Almond Market Summary

The Almond Board released its May 2015 Industry Position Report today, shipments for the month were 139.6 mil lbs versus 143.7 mil lbs in May 2014. Uncommitted inventory is 290 mil lbs versus 329 mil. US shipments were down, 52.35 versus 54.64 mil lbs. Exports were 87.25 mil vs. 89.1 mil.. India (7.46mil vs. 5.96 mil) and China/Hong Kong (3.14 mil vs. 2.73 mil) continue to be strong. Europe was slightly down (-6%) and the Middle East (+3%) was slightly up. 

Current Crop: In the past month sellers have become more aggressive on large size NP and Carmel's, currently offers for 20/22 and 27/30 (if you can find them) are separated by .03-.05/lb. Domestic, Middle East and European markets have been inconsistent, as buyers only cover exactly what they need to get through to new crop. India has finally slowed down, as the high shipping figures we have seen for the last 3 months shipments make their way into the local markets. China/Hong Kong has been the exception, as buyers attempt to purchase what little remains of inshell inventory.

New Crop: Demand is strong from all major markets with limited offers from CA as fear over water availability and inconsistent NP crop increases. Recent trades on new crop are at or slightly above current crop levels.  

Moving forward, much like last year, we expect offers to continue to "trickle" out through the fall,  as sellers avoid offering larger blocks. This is to the dismay of large users who prefer to contract large quantities at one price, rather than patch together smaller quantities at varying prices throughout the year. This behavior could cause prices to remain firm for the foreseeable future.

Please let us know your needs so we can offer accordingly.

Almond Industry Position Report May 2015

 

Almond Market Summary

The Almond Board released its April 2015 Industry Position Report today, shipments for the month were 151.090 mil lbs versus 137.724 mil lbs in April 2014. Uncommitted inventory is 393 mil lbs versus 434 mil. US shipments had a solid month shipping 58.7 mil vs. 50.87, Exports were 92.35 mil vs. 86.85 mil. India (9.78 mil vs. 5.9 mil), Western Europe (39.76 mil vs. 35.50 mil), and China/HK (6.081 vs. 3.369) all helped with the increase in export shipments.

It has been a busy two weeks since CASS released the Subjective Almond Crop Estimate on May 5 and today's shipping figures. Although the estimate of 1.85 bil. lbs was largely viewed as neutral by both sellers and buyers, we have seen continued price increases in both old and new crop offers. This was largely due to strong demand from Europe, fueled by a more favorable exchange rate, especially for STDs and sized Cals, which are proving difficult to source. Current STDs were reportedly traded yesterday at 4.51 FAS, with only a small increase in price for sized Cals and Carmels.

 Reports vary slightly depending on location/water availability, but the general consensus on new crop is NP inconsistent, while most pollinators look above average. With almost no current crop NP Inshell left in inventory, Indian buyers have shown strong interest in new crop. Recent sales for September shipment have reported as high as 3.61 FAS 70% SS ($5.157 Kernel price). There has been a slight discount for new crop Cals/STD with very few offers, new crop NP kernels have been at the same level as current crop. New crop STD demand has been around 4.40-4.45, with sellers asking a few cents higher.

Almond Industry Position Report

Almond Market Summary

We are pleased to provide the below almond market summary in response to the March shipping figures released by the Almond Board today. Our sales team is available to answer any questions, sales inquiries, or offer more detailed market analysis. You can find our full contact details, along with a link to the position report at the bottom of this email. 

The Almond Board released its March 2015 Industry Position Report today, shipments for the month were 190.137 mil lbs versus 151.288 mil lbs in March 2014. Crop receipts are now 1.862 bil lbs and uncommitted inventory is 559 mil lbs versus 536 in March 2014.

Both sellers and buyers expected a large March due mainly to the West Coast ports operating at capacity for the full month. While usually production limits the amount packers can ship in a given month, it was container availability limiting industry capacity as processors shipped inventory backed up by the port labor slow down. This was proven to be true with domestic shipments down slightly from March of 2014. We have seen strong demand end of last week and into this week from India, Europe, and the US as buyers try to cover summer ship periods. Recent trades on 2014 crop NP Inshell at over 3.50/lb FAS 70% SS and STD Max 5 at 4.26 FAS have been reported. We expect this firming trend to continue for the near future as buyers continue to cover their remaining 2014 crop requirements. 

The extended CA drought continues to dominate global, national, and local news with the almond industry becoming a focus point. Below is a link to an article written by Richard Waycott at the Almond Board addressing this crucial issue, please take the time to read. It is too early to tell exactly how much the drought will effect 2015 crop. What we do hear from early reports from growers throughout the state is that of an inconsistent crop especially on the NP. New crop prices have increased dramatically in the past 10 days with some grades/sizes seeing close to a .25/lb increase. 

Click for Almond Board Article

Click for Position Report

Please let us know your needs so we can offer accordingly.

 

Almond Market Summary

Almond Market Summary January 9, 2015
We are pleased to provide the below almond market summary in response to the December shipping figures released by the Almond Board today. Our sales team is available to answer any questions, sales inquiries, or offer more detailed market analysis. You can find our full contact details at the bottom of this email. 

Thank you for your continued support.

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The Almond Board of California has released its December 2014 Industry Position Report. Shipments for the month are 148.1 mil lbs. versus 156.6 in 2013.  December crop receipts are 1.805 bil lbs. versus 1.935 in 2013. Uncommitted inventory is 921.43 mil lbs versus 855.36 mil lbs in 2013.
 
Domestic shipments remain strong with 48.1 mil. lbs. shipped compared to 47.1 mil lbs shipped in 2013; total exports were 100.0 mil lbs versus 110.45 in 2013. Export shipments for the season, to date, are 539.50 mil lbs versus 643.97 mil lbs.
 
Since the holidays we have seen buyers more willing to book in the short term then CA processors willing to sell. In the past week NP inshell prices have increased dramatically due to bids out of India, yesterday saw limited buying as high as 3.30 FAS 70% SS (4.714 Total Kernel). The highest price for NP inshell previously for the year was 3.20 FAS 70% SS (3.57 Total Kernel) which was done end of September. NP kernels have also increased .05-.07 over the past week. 
 
The trajectory of the Crop receipts continue to indicate that the harvest will fall short of 1.9 bil lbs. Based upon December receipts our expectation is a total crop of 1.85-1.88 bil lbs. Sellers will refer to the receipts as a reason why prices should firm into the bloom period. Buyers will point to the increase in uncommitted inventory as an indication that the crop is undersold. What we can expect is continued hand to mouth buying as higher prices make their way to the consumer. European buyers will undoubtedly look to Spain as an alternative supplier as the Euro continues to weaken versus the Dollar, causing Spain to be more competitive then California in the European market. And, of course, we will hear the continued concerns regarding the drought and lack of chill hours as we move into the bloom period late this month/February.

Almond Market Summary, November 11, 2014

We are pleased to provide the below almond market summary in response to the October shipping figures released by the Almond Board today. Our sales team is available to answer any questions, sales inquiries, or offer more detailed market analysis. You can find our full contact details at the bottom of this email. 

Thank you for your continued support.


The Almond Board of California has released its October 2014 Industry Position Report. Shipments for the month are 204.64 mil lbs. versus 228.60 in 2013.  October crop receipts are 1.51 bil lbs. versus 1.38 in 2013, an increase of 9.51%. Uncommitted inventory is 853.7 mil lbs versus 578.7 mil lbs in 2013, an increase of 47.51%.

Domestic shipments remain strong with 64.2 mil. lbs. shipped compared to 59.4 mil lbs shipped in 2013; total exports were 140.4 mil lbs versus 169.2 in 2013. Export shipments for the season, to date, are 345.5 mil lbs  versus 393.9 mil lbs. Western Europe, October being peak shipment period for Christmas, is up 2% (53.57 mil lbs versus 52.62 mil lbs) even with Spain being down 18% (12.95 mil versus 15.85). China/Hong Kong is down 44% (21.09 mil versus 37.7 mil lbs.), while India continues to surpass expectations by being up 16% (12.77 mil versus 11.02 mil lbs). UAE and Turkey, down 23% and 20% respectively, led the way for total Middle East shipments being down 23% (18.73 mil versus 24.40 mil lbs).

Shipments being down for the month was expected by both sellers and buyers; the question many were asking was if it was going to surpass 200 mil lbs. (which it did). Buyers will undoubtedly use the low uncommitted inventory to illustrate to sellers that there is still a lot of selling that needs to be done, especially with the holiday shipping season completed to most major markets. For the short term outlook, we can expect more downward pressure on prices that have fallen .15-.25 from its peak in September. Sellers will continue to stress the dire water situation as a reason why prices should not fall too much. A average November for rainfall (which we are clearly short of to date) will not end the drought. Long term pricing will depend on whether CA receives sustained and substantial rain in the valley and snow in the mountains.

Please let us know your needs so we can offer accordingly.

 

Port Congestion

As all of you are aware, the West Coast of the US is experiencing major issues at its ports. It is becoming increasingly difficult to access the equipment and vessel space needed to get containers where they need to be when they need to be there. The below link provides a summary of the current situation. Although it only references Southern California, all major ports on the West Coast are affected (including Oakland).