Market at a glance: Hesitancies and unknowns filled the market the past 30 days resulting in subdued activity. Prices on current crop, maintained levels above $3.00 per pound for sized California and Carmel Types while Nonpareil varied between sellers ranging between $3.35-$3.50 per pound. Most recently new crop started to take shape with some consistent pricing, but buyers hesitated in large part to confirm new crop business due to pricing versus last year and the unknown political situations throughout the world and how that could impact their local trade.
On Monday, June 11th, the Almond Board of California released the May 2018 Position Report. Shipments for the month ended May 2018 were down 7.3% versus May 2017. For your review is a summary comparison on Year-to-date figures:
May 2018 May 2017 % Chg.
Crop Receipts 2,257,764,983 2,134,146,317 5.79%
Total Supply 2,611,286,795 2,503,464,516 4.31%
Monthly Shipments 158,298,130 170,691,334 -7.3%
Export Shipments 92,007,607 112,093,559 -17.9
Domestic Shipments 66,290,523 58,597,775 13.1%
YTD Shipments 1,950,938,607 1,769,776,659 10.24%
YTD Export Shipments 1,338439,624 1,216,585,512 10.02%
YTD Domestic Shipments 612,498,983 553,191,147 10.72%
Inventory 660,348,188 733,687,857 -10.0%
Uncommitted Inventory 368.587,253 349,583,737 5.44%
Percent sold of crop 99% 100%
Percent sold of total supply 87% 86%
New sales 2017 Crop 76,189,075 144,814,067 -47.38%
New sales 2018 Crop 80,815,441 209,250,941 -61.37%
Shipments for the month of May were down approximately 7.3 percent versus last May, and year-to-date shipments were up double digits 10.24 percent. Uncommitted inventory is about 19 million pounds or 5.4 percent more over last year. Some major export markets such as Germany, Spain, Netherlands, UK, UAE, Turkey, and China saw decreases in May shipments from 2017 to 2018. New sales for the month of May reflected the market's activity in general with new sales of only 76 million pounds. This is a decrease of 47.38 percent versus last year. New crop sales saw a decrease as well with sales totaling just over 80 million pounds versus 209 million pounds last year.
This month's shipment report is reflective of the market unknowns and lack of confidence for what the future holds in world trade. The fundamentals of the 2017 crop aren't daunting by any means. The projected carryout could be somewhere close to last year's carry out figure, which as a percentage is a smaller percentage of total supply, and the total percent sold is right in line with last year (87% vs. 86%) at this time. The sentiment of the market however is what might have more of an impact on how the market moves forward versus fundamentals of the market. Cautious buyers will be even more cautious on purchasing opportunities as they arise, and buyers could wait until they sense the market has reached a fair equilibrium point with supply and demand before doing the next round of purchases.
Notable upcoming reports:
July 5th Objective Estimate
July 12th June Position Report
We at PACE welcome your questions and comments and are eager to discuss any aspects of this report with you or any almond demand you may have or are contemplating.