2019 California Walnut Crop Objective Estimate

On Friday August 30th, USDA/NASS released the objective measurement report for the 2019/2020 crop year estimated as 630,000 tons. This is 6.8% down from 2018's production of 676,000 ton and 8.8% below the Subjective estimate of 691,000 ton. The link below is for the full report on the NASS website.

2019/2020 Walnut Objective Estimate Forecast

This "Objective" estimate is in stark contrast to the "Subjective" estimate put forth in late July 2019 by the Independent Walnut Handlers Coalition. The Subjective estimate is unscientific whereas the Objective estimate is supposedly put forth with good science by those that are tasked with doing so and which have been relatively accurate in the past. The bearing acres for the estimate are forecasted 365,000 up 4.3% from prior year.

Prior to the Objective estimate, Inshell Jumbo/Large Chandler which opened up about 30 days ago in the $1.15/lb range, had been recently trading in the $1.25/lb to $1.30/lb range. With this, packers then extrapolated a price for Chandler kernel LHP 20's in the $3.00 to $3.10/lb range, Domestic LHP in the $2.70 to $2.80/lb range and CHP in the $2.60 to $2.70/lb range. With this new estimate, many packers are withdrawn from the market and many are pondering their next move.