Turkey is sold out of 2025 crop
Exports in May were 1,638 tons compared to 3,640 tons last year
Exports year to date are 26,499 tons compared to 69,107 same period last year
Average price whole apricots in May was $8,910/ton FOB and year to date $9,267
We expect to end the season with exports around 30,000 tons with negligible carryover. 100% of the exports this season were carryover from 2024 crop, as there was zero 2025 crop.
There have been no sellers in the market in Malatya for the past month or so, the 2024/5 crop appears sold out.
Malatya 2026 Crop Prospects
The bloom was mostly frost free, so we were able to better understand the health of the trees damaged by extreme low temperatures of 2025. We estimate that 10% of trees have already been pulled out, a further 10 to 15% did not bloom and have barely leaved, and are considered permanently lost. The number of productive trees is therefore 75 to 80% of what it was pre 2025 limiting the crop potential accordingly. We expect some orchards will be replanted but these will not come into meaningful production for 5 to 10 years.
There was a lot of rain and some hail during and after the bloom. Our initial survey of the growing regions over the past week shows a mixed bag, generally the trees on the plains particularly around the lake are showing a light or very light fruit set. Akcadag, Dogansehir Yazihan and Darende is mixed with some orchards poor, some moderate and a few heavy set. There is no simple explanation as to why an orchard on one side of the road is moderate, and its neighbour on the other very light, possibly one has a more effective spraying regime during blossom set to mitigate the rain. Variety does not seem to be the reason.
Given the above at this stage it is all but impossible to put a confident number on the crop, the current majority seems to be gravitating towards a consensus of between 70,000 and 80,000 tons.
The fruit development is about 2 weeks behind average due to an unusually cool spring through to the end of May. This slow development may result in larger and “meatier” fruit as will the majority of the orchards being light to moderate yielding. There is about 15% overall speckling so far and 5% hail damage.
World Supply
Central Asian countries are reporting a reduced supply of 46,000 tons combined, compared to 73,000 tons last year due to adverse weather during bloom
Tajikistan has the largest percentage decrease from 15,000 tons in 2025 to 6,000 tons in 2026 due to frost.
We believe these origins are also sold out of 2025 fruit with little or no carryover (apart from returning rejects)
Vs World Demand
Consuming countries have tight stocks, we have seen several enquiries recently from buyers facing defaults or due to rejections and spoilage from Central Asian origin contracts.
The INC forecast total world supply in 2026 at 136,840 compared to 138,330 in 2025, so actually a decrease of 1%.
The INC states annual world consumption in 2025 was 134,330 tons despite record high prices, so it’s still going to be tight.
Price Expectations
The market is anticipating lower prices for new crop Turkish apricots, we hope so, but keep in mind world supply is actually less than last year and there in no carryover in Turkey Central Asia or consuming countries. Best be patient and see what transpires at harvest, as we all know tempting preseason speculative purchases from origin are pointless, as the chances of default if prices are higher at harvest is overwhelming.